What will be the impact of the attack against Bolsonaro in the electoral race?

What will be the impact of the attack against Bolsonaro in the electoral race?

Attack should not trigger support for the PSL candidate, but increases their chances of going to the second round, political scientists say.
attack on presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) - stabbed on Thursday during a campaign in Minas Gerais - throws even more uncertainty about a race that was already largely undefined. An initial analysis of the episode, however, indicates that the Bolsonaro tends to be benefited electorally by the attack, whereas the PSDB competitor, Geraldo Alckmin, that directly contests with him the more conservative vote, is the one that must face more difficulties in the new scenario.

Attack on Bolsonaro throws even more uncertainty about race, analysts say.
Bolsonaro was transferred to Albert Einstein Hospital in São Paulo on Friday and is stable but not expected to be discharged. His son, Flávio Bolsonaro, said that the father should no longer campaign on the streets.

For political analysts heard by BBC News Brazil, the attack should not generate a surge in the PSL candidate's intentions, but it has the potential to at least consolidate the support he has already gained, which increases his chances of going to the second shift.

With the departure of former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, declared ineligible for justice, Bolsonaro appears in first place in the polls. The latest Ibope survey gives him 22%, ten percentage points above Marina Silva (Rede) and Ciro Gomes (PDT), both tied for second place with 12%. Alckmin comes back with 9%.

Lula's likely substitute for PT candidate Fernando Haddad appears with 6% - he must be confirmed in the head of the PT team by Tuesday. The survey, conducted last weekend, has a margin of error of two percentage points.

Electoral propaganda and "media effect"

There was an expectation among political scientists that after the start of radio and television election propaganda at the end of August, Bolsonaro, who is entitled to very little time, would begin to lose votes, while Alckmin, owner of the largest advertising space, would become better known and would begin to rise in the preference of the electorate.

However, after stabbing him, Bolsonaro must be benefited by a mixture of what analysts call a "tragedy effect" and "media effect," in which there is intense press coverage, with a positive bias, since he was the victim of an attack. In addition, he will now have a legitimate justification for not attending discussions with other candidates, where he has been the preferred target of opponents.

Journalists and pedestrians observe location where suspected attack attended custody hearing; PSL candidate may be benefited by the so-called 'media effect'

"Bolsonaro will receive intense exposure in the next ten days, which he would not have without this attack, in a cover that will soften his image of aggression, because he will appear in a position of fragility. the political scientist Jairo Pimentel Jr., a researcher at the FGV.

The sociologist Esther Solano, a professor at the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp) who has been closely studying Bolsonaro's followers, also believes that the attack must consolidate the electorate that the candidate has already built. The episode, he says, reinforces among its supporters the reading that "the citizen of good is unprotected" and that it is necessary to be hard in the fight against violence, one of the main proposals of the candidate.

"But I do not believe that this will help to win many votes of undecided, because this more moderate group can understand, with this attack, that the aggressive discourse actually encourages violent acts," he says.

Political analyst Alberto Almeida, who has been saying since last year that the most likely scenario in this election would again be a second round between PT and PSDB, acknowledges that the attack increases Bolsonaro's chances.